NEW DELHI — Fresh from declaring victory in India’s election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered few details on the agenda for his third term but went out of his way to underline he would continue to focus on raising the country’s military preparedness and clout.
As India’s rivalry with China grows, it is likely that Modi will serve a third term, which could lead to closer defense ties with the United States. Fresh from his victory in India’s election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi didn’t provide many specifics about his agenda for the third term. However, he did emphasize that he would continue to prioritize enhancing the country’s military preparedness and influence. This news should be welcomed by the United States and its allies, as they increasingly focus on countering China’s expansive maritime claims and assertive behavior in the Indo-Pacific region.
During a speech at his party’s headquarters after the election results were announced, Modi stated, “The government will concentrate on expanding defense production and exports.” He also mentioned his plan to improve security by reducing India’s reliance on arms imports. “We won’t stop until our defense sector becomes self-sufficient.” Under Modi’s leadership, defense cooperation with the U.S. has significantly grown, especially through the Quad security grouping, which also includes Australia and Japan. This partnership benefits both sides, as it provides the U.S. with a strong ally in close proximity to China, which the U.S. considers its biggest challenge, while bolstering India’s defense credibility against a much stronger adversary. Rahul Bedi, a defense analyst based in New Delhi, remarked, “As far as the Americans are concerned, India is currently a frontline state. The Indian navy plays a crucial role in the Indian Ocean region.”
When U.S. President Joe Biden congratulated Modi on the election results, defense relations were at the top of their agenda. During their call, “the two leaders emphasized the deepening of the U.S.-India comprehensive and global strategic partnership, as well as their shared vision of a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region,” according to the White House. The statement also mentioned that National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan would soon travel to New Delhi “to discuss shared U.S.-India priorities with the new government.”
Around a year into Modi’s second term, India’s defense focus underwent a significant shift towards China. This change came about when clashes erupted in 2020 between troops from the two nuclear neighbors in the Galwan Valley, located in the disputed northern border region of Ladakh. Tragically, this confrontation resulted in the loss of 20 Indian soldiers. Viraj Solanki, an expert based in London with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, emphasized that “China truly poses a long-term strategic challenge for India, both on the border and in the Indian Ocean.” As a consequence, India has altered its defense partnerships, now primarily centered around countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
China maintains a close relationship with Pakistan, India’s traditional rival. Additionally, China has been bolstering its defense cooperation with India’s neighboring countries, including Nepal, Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka. Solanki pointed out that “China is actively seeking to engage more with these nations to expand its own influence and presence.” This development is a cause for concern in New Delhi, as it will likely lead to heightened competition in the Indian Ocean over the coming years.
Following Modi’s election victory, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning congratulated him and emphasized the importance of a “sound and stable” relationship between India and China, stating that it is in the interest of both countries and contributes to regional peace and development. However, her remarks were noticeably more restrained compared to the Foreign Ministry’s comments after Modi’s previous win in 2019, prior to the border conflict. At that time, the Foreign Ministry referred to the two nations as “important neighbors” and expressed a desire to deepen political mutual trust, foster mutually beneficial cooperation, and advance the closer partnership between the two countries.
Modi has always governed with his party in the majority. However, after a lackluster performance in the election, he will now be forced to rely on coalition partners. This shift in power dynamics will also bring about a stronger and invigorated opposition.
The main opposition Congress party is unlikely to challenge Modi’s defense reforms. However, they have been critical of his handling of the border issue with China. They may put pressure on him regarding this matter. Bedi, a political analyst, expressed his doubts about Modi’s transparency in the situation in Ladakh. He referred to a Defense Ministry document that was briefly published online, suggesting Chinese troops had entered Indian territory during the 2020 confrontation. Bedi stated, “Modi has not been entirely truthful, or very economical with the truth as far as the situation in Ladakh is concerned.” He believes that the opposition will raise questions and demand clarity on the real situation.
Under Modi’s military modernization and reform program, his government has aimed to boost the private defense manufacturing sector. Previously, this sector was solely occupied by government-run organizations. To encourage companies to establish themselves in India, the government has relaxed foreign direct investment regulations. As part of this initiative, the country launched its first home-built aircraft carrier in 2022. The plan is to deploy two carrier battle groups to counter China’s growing maritime power.
India heavily relies on Russian-origin military equipment. However, delays in delivery and difficulties in procuring spare parts due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have prompted India to diversify its defense procurement. They are now looking to the U.S., France, Israel, and other countries for alternatives, according to Solanki, an expert in international relations.
In an effort to strengthen ties with India, the United States has agreed to a deal allowing General Electric to collaborate with Hindustan Aeronautics in producing fighter jet engines. This collaboration signifies the growing partnership between the two nations.
At the recent Shangri-La defense conference in Singapore, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin expressed his thoughts on the collaboration between the two nations. He mentioned that they were not only working together on armored vehicles but also strengthening their bond. Austin emphasized that the current relationship with India is exceptional, possibly surpassing any previous ties. He described it as genuinely robust and flourishing.
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